The proposed framework will bring great predictive power to assess the resilience of a complex water and infrastructure systems to hazardous events (e.g. floods, droughts) beyond the largest records and natural disasters. Using the generated flows, it can significantly reduce the uncertainty stemming from the hydrological modelling and short records, which typically lead to the poor representations of extreme hydrological events. It is expected that the proposed research will significantly advance the understanding of (1) how complex infrastructure systems perform under disturbance; and (2) what will be the best adaptation option under the changing conditions. Therefore, this research will contribute to the development of new (1) research methodology and (2) its application to a real case study system.

Expected impact

The proposed research aims to fulfil the main objectives of the Ministry of education, science and technology development of Republic Serbia, such as reinforcing the Serbian position in science and education helping to address the major concerns shared by Serbian citizens. Implementation of the proposed research could lead to a reduction in the loss of life and the damage to infrastructure caused by flooding. It will strive to derive appropriate strategies for the improvement of aging structural elements for a particular water system. Also, the system view of environmental issues can improve the river “health” by proposing a strategy for reservoir operation in an environmentally friendly manner. From the economic point of view, the research will lead to reduction in the costs of eliminating harmful effects of extreme hydrological events (e.g. floods, droughts) on society and will redirect the investment to build new and repair water objects in use.